How To Forecast Recurring Revenue

With recurring revenue, there is no longer an expected steady flow of income coming in from one source. Rather, your business has determined that this particular client or customer will keep paying you for regular services or products!

With this type of income, it becomes more difficult to predict how much money your company will make each month or year. This can be tricky when trying to forecast what revenues you’ll get ahead of time, but only having estimates makes planning future activities very tough.

Fortunately, however, there are several ways to forecast recurring revenue. By knowing the different components of recurrent earnings, you’ll have greater insight into predicting future revenues.

This article will discuss some easy methods to do so.

Calculate the amount you would need to charge to receive the same amount of revenue each month

how to forecast recurring revenue

Now that you have determined how much your business makes in gross profit, you can shift your focus onto determining how much it costs to keep your business running on a day-to-day basis.

This is the recurring cost side of the equation which includes things such as payroll, office space, utilities, etc. While these expenses do not make up as big of a chunk of the income as the gross profits do, they are still necessary for keeping the business running effectively.

By calculating what your monthly budget should be based off of one year’s worth of revenues, you get an accurate picture of whether or not your current spending level is sustainable long term.

By using this method, you also account for any potential growth spurt the business may experience at some point in the future. For example, let’s say your average monthly spend is $5,000 per month, but one year it increased to $7,500 due to an unexpected spike in sales.

You would likely run out of money before the end of the next fiscal quarter, making it impossible to continue investing in your business during those times. It could even put stress on your personal savings if you don’t plan on being able to pay yourself very well!

To avoid having to cut back significantly on your expenditures, you will want to make sure that your budget is higher than what your revenue has been in past months.

Calculate your forecasted revenue for each product

how to forecast recurring revenue

The second part of forecasting recurring revenues is calculating your forecasted revenue for each individual product. This includes products that have an annual subscription, monthly subscriptions, or both yearly and monthly memberships!

For example, if you are predicting sales for a monthly fitness membership site, you would need to include the cost of the plan as well as how many months people will be subscribed to in your calculations.

By including this information, you can determine whether or not it makes sense to invest in new equipment since you know what kind of income they will produce.

Compare your forecasted revenue to your current list price to see if you should raise or lower your prices

how to forecast recurring revenue

When it comes to forecasting recurring revenue, there are two important things to note. First, you will want to make sure that you have included all of the expenses in your business that will be used to calculate how much money you make per unit sold. This includes things like payroll, marketing costs, website fees, and more!

By including these additional costs in your calculations, you can determine whether or not it is best to increase or decrease your initial pricing. For example, if you find that you spent $1,000 to produce one product and people were willing to pay an average of $500 for it, then it makes sense to reduce your initial cost so that you can generate more income with the same amount of effort.

On the other hand, if you increased your initial cost by 50% and people still wanted to purchase your products at the higher price, it may be time to rethink your strategy. You could potentially focus less on producing high-quality content and instead just throw together whatever ideas you have at the moment and try to hone them into something saleable, or even create content that is focused more on promoting yourself than providing quality content.

The second part of predicting recurrent revenues is knowing when to stop offering your services. Just because you offered a service before does not mean that you must continue to offer it forever. More and more businesses drop their overhead as they grow due to economies of scale.

Review your product launch dates to see if you should extend your current launch dates or start new ones

There’s no use in launching your business if you don’t have any revenue coming in! Unfortunately, not all businesses enjoy an early success with their products before they get expensive to maintain.

This is especially true of companies that rely heavily on technology for their services. For example, someone who designs logos can spend hours every day creating new logos. They might even outsource some of this work so it doesn’t cost them too much money.

But what about those unpaid months and years while they're putting in time into their career? If people didn't pay for their service, how would they be able to keep paying for their software and websites?

In fact, there are many fields where this applies very strongly. Even though most artists aren’t paid for their art, we still need to account for the costs of producing our own artwork.

And since almost everyone needs internet access at home these days, why not create your own? This is another source of recurring income that you could potentially add to your portfolio.

Calculate the amount of times your customers would have to purchase your products before you reach recurrence

how to forecast recurring revenue

While most businesses rely heavily on sales for their income, they are not limited to this model alone! This is because recurring revenue comes in many shapes and forms. For example, how about free services that people use every day? Or merchandise that people buy annually or monthly – like using Netflix every month or buying new clothes seasonally (winter clothing, spring clothing, etc.).

Recurring revenue can be generated through online courses that people pay to learn. Blogs earn money from the advertisements they include while writing content and posting it on social media sites. The same goes for YouTube videos!

Businesses that generate recurring income do so due to one thing: consistency. They create relationships with their clients by being consistent in what they offer and when they offer it.

Compare this number to your customer lifetime value

how to forecast recurring revenue

The difference between how much revenue you’ll get per month from recurring payments and your CLV is called the average transaction size.

The average transaction size is important because it tells you how expensive your business is, on an individual level. It also gives you a sense of what each person who buys a product or service pays, on a monthly basis.

By comparing the two numbers, you can determine if there are ways to reduce the price people pay for your products or services without hurting your bottom line.

For example, let’s say that your company offers free access to an online tool for one week. After seven days, most users would stop using the software and download it.

However, your company costs $100 to produce every time someone uses the app. So even though the cost is low, it still adds up over time!

You could potentially try having longer trial periods or offering the software at a discounted rate, but that might not be good for your business long term.

So how do you forecast the amount of money you will make per month? Let us review some tips.

Is it time to offer subscription services?

how to forecast recurring revenue

Having recurring revenue is one of the most important milestones in business for two main reasons. First, with the right amount of subscriptions, you can now keep offering new products and services to your customers without needing their constant input.

Second, having recurring income allows you to invest more in your company and expanding its reach. You no longer need to worry about funding or sacrificing capital when investing in additional equipment, promoting new products, or hiring extra staff.

Because these services are paid for upfront, there is less risk involved than if you were buying inventory that you needed to find buyers for and then hope they will come back. Plus, you get to keep what money you do make over and above what you spent on the service!

With every month’s payment going straight into your bank account, you also have access to far more financing options than if this was a one-time purchase. Take advantage of this opportunity by doing some research and finding out how many other companies use these tools to grow.

You might even be able to pick up leftover goods or components as “thank you” gifts for donating yours.

Calculate the amount of revenue you can expect each month during a subscription

how to forecast recurring revenue

When it comes down to it, there are two main factors in forecasting recurring income. The first is how much revenue your product or service will generate per month. This is what we refer to as “sales intensity” – the number of sales you anticipate every month.

The second factor is how long it takes for people to pay off their subscriptions once they have them! We call this conversion rate because it quantifies how likely individual users are to renew their membership after initial payment.

Both of these elements combine together to form your monthly forecast. By estimating how many months out you have until renewal, you get an idea of how much money you should be preparing for your business.

By calculating both the sales intensity and conversion rates, you ensure that you are not overextending yourself financially due to overestimated revenues.

About The Author

Tiara Ogabang
Tiara Joan Ogabang is a talented content writer and marketing expert, currently working for the innovative company With a passion for writing and a keen eye for detail, Tiara has quickly become an integral part of the team, helping to drive engagement and build brand awareness through her creative and engaging content.
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